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JonSCKs

Posted 5/19/2024 06:31 (#10744423 - in reply to #10743359)
Subject: This is NOT a big crop.

zenfarm - 5/17/2024 21:25

The US is the residual supplier of wheat to the world, we have consistently been the highest price wheat in the world for years ( in terms of HRWW). I don’t think that just because we have more supplies of HRWW that means we are going to export more. Being a fungible commodity, wheat primarily competes on the basis of price.

HRWW.. have we averted a disaster for 2024? Possibly yes. However, there are still fields being destroyed.. there would be more if there was enough moisture to do something else..

With recent rains.. what’s left should fill decently well.. so the quality.. and we’ve still got a few more weeks to know for sure.. but the quality should be good.

Our coop has built storage two years ago which has yet to see a single bushel dumped into BRAND NEW BINS. “LOWEST STOCKS IN THE ELEVATOR since I’ve been here.”

So I don’t see a tidal wave of grain coming to the markets any time soon. There is CERTAINLY NO NEED to move it for space.. With $0.53 carry out to the March.. we’ll fill maybe.. from 15% up to 50% of these elevators and sit to see what El Niño does to us this summer. How aggressive do elevators compete to stop storing air?

I doubt we see any lines.. anywhere this wheat harvest.

NASS gets its trendline yield by abandoning acres.. that’s not a recipe for a “Big Crop.”

There’s gonna be some quality bushels.. but it’s gonna take a pretty penny to get ‘em. $7.34 insurance price.. if the stand doesn’t justify saving.. guys are cashing in on that. Actually THAT is the discussion I had with my neighbor coming home last night.

”Wow.. what happened to so and so’s field? When did he bale that?”

”Yal I noticed that also.. guess he put a pencil to it..”

My guess.. you could probably put everything left into the concrete AND have space left to fill.. only needing 2.. 2.5.. maybe 3 of the tin cans.
No doubt the 4th continues to store air.

Edited by JonSCKs 5/19/2024 06:58